TIME: Almanac 1990/1990 Time Magazine Compact Almanac, The (1991)(Time).iso/time/121889/12188900.042

Text File | 1990-09-19 | 6KB | 104 lines

WORLD, Page 18

Is the Soviet Union Next to Explode?

Gorbachev insists he will not deep-six the party, but he may

have no choice


    End the official monopoly of power of the Communist Party of
the Soviet Union, proud inheritor of Lenin's mantle, vanguard of
world revolution?

    Of the many unthinkable ideas floated in perestroika's wake,
this reform ranked among the most wildly farfetched. But last week
the prospect of abolishing the party's "leading role" in the
U.S.S.R. gained momentum when the Lithuanian legislature voted 243
to 1 in favor of a constitutional amendment legalizing rivals to
the Communist Party. While Lithuania thus became the first Soviet
republic to do so, in neighboring Estonia the Communist Party
Central Committee approved a similar proposal that should easily
pass the legislature next month. In Armenia angry crowds surrounded
parliament after legislators rejected a multiparty system. This
week Andrei Sakharov and other members of the Congress of People's
Deputies are calling for a two-hour strike to force the Congress
to debate the repeal or modification of Article 6 of the
constitution, which enshrines the Communist Party's dominance in
the national government.

    These developments -- and the gleeful speed with which Poland,
Hungary, East Germany and Czechoslovakia have guillotined the
Communist monopoly -- must make Mikhail Gorbachev feel like the
sorcerer's apprentice. Unable to control the rising flood of
reforms he has conjured up, he is finding it harder to keep afloat.

    Gorbachev, who has called a multiparty system "rubbish," has
good reason to worry. Many non-Russians in the Soviet empire --
Ukrainians and Azerbaijanis as well as Armenians and Balts -- would
flock to new parties seeking autonomy from Moscow. The Baltic
republics already sport popular fronts and other freshly minted
political groups whose members ran as independent candidates in
national elections earlier this year and trounced establishment
party hacks. In the Russian Republic itself, there is mounting
anger and frustration with empty shops and suffocating bureaucracy
that could easily swell the rolls of a gaggle of independent
parties. Politburo member Yegor Ligachev, speaking for the Kremlin
conservatives whose favor Gorbachev must still curry, has said
flatly that multiple parties would "lead to the disintegration of
the U.S.S.R."

    Gorbachev also contends that the future of well-managed reform
depends on the party continuing to run the show, an argument that
would surely bring a smile to the face of just deposed East German
party leader Egon Krenz. "Preserving the vanguard role for the
party, from our point of view, is extremely necessary, especially
in the time of perestroika," insists candidate Politburo member
Yevgeni Primakov. "The party is the only consolidating force in our
society, and in our federation."

    Yet even the Kremlin realizes that Article 6 as now written is
out of date. This provision entered the Soviet constitution only
in 1977, at the height of what is now denounced as the "era of
stagnation." Sakharov and other liberals have made the repeal of
Article 6 a litmus test of the leadership's commitment to genuine
progress. They have substantial support. The Supreme Soviet voted
198 to 173 last month to debate Article 6; only 28 abstentions kept
the measure off the agenda of this week's session of the Congress
of People's Deputies. Gorbachev recognizes that "the rates of
perestroika in the party have thus far been slower than those in
society, which makes it difficult for the party to carry out its
leading role." If Gorbachev wants to keep the liberals' engine
hitched to his reform train, a revamped Article 6 must be part of
the coupling.

    Meanwhile, the national Communist Party is under attack from
within. Last month the leaders of Leningrad's Communist Party
arranged an unprecedented demonstration to criticize Moscow for not
defending the party against glasnost-inspired attacks. If this
outburst reflects apparatchik sentiment, legalizing competitive
groups would arouse not only outrage but perhaps a concerted effort
to oust Gorbachev. The Leningrad protest provoked a countermarch
by some 40,000 incensed citizens who proclaimed their support for
Gorbachev's efforts to rejuvenate the party through open criticism.

    At the same time, Lithuania's Communist Party is on the brink
of cutting its ties to the national organization. Fearing defeat
in elections scheduled for February, the Lithuanian leadership is
desperate to redeem the local party in the voters' eyes, despite
warnings from Moscow that perestroika will disintegrate under the
pressure of their extreme separatism. If the Lithuanians succeed
in severing their links, they will set a provocative precedent that
is sure to be repeated in other republics.

    Gorbachev has tried to dampen the ardor for repealing Article
6, claiming that giving up one-party rule would be a capitulation.
But there were signs last week that the Kremlin was willing to
fiddle with the text. Noting that Article 6 was "not a taboo
subject," Politburo ideologist Vadim Medvedev said the present
wording should not be kept "at all cost" and ought to be "brought
into line with the party's new role in society."

    Once again the task before Gorbachev is to enhance his power
by co-opting the demands for radical change while at the same time
persuading conservative foot draggers to join his cause. But to
contain the rising tide of dissent in the Soviet Union, now
bubbling up through many unofficial groups and opposing factions
within the party itself, before it reaches the flood levels
prevailing in East Germany and Czechoslovakia, the Communist Party
will have to demonstrate that it deserves the support of the people
without relying on the crutch of Article 6.